NHC Bumping Up Development Chances In Atlantic, Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center has slightly increased development chances for two areas of interest.

Here's the NHC update from Wednesday afternoon:

Southwestern Atlantic:

A trough of low pressure stretching from the eastern Caribbean northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development of this system, and a subtropical depression could form while it drifts northward during the next couple of days. The system is then forecast to meander over the subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the weekend.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Caribbean:

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.


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