Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center were the latest to warn of an "extremely active" 2020 Atlantic hurricane season as they released their updated outlook Thursday, which calls for 19 to 25 named storms and 7 to 11 hurricanes, with three to six becoming major hurricane of category 3 strength or higher.
The previous forecast called for 13 to 19 named storms and six to ten hurricanes, with three to six becoming major hurricanes.
“This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA says the conditions providing the ingredients for an active season include warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. There is also the possibly of a La Nina forming, which can weaken wind shear over the Atlantic Basin and allow for storms to develop and intensify.
The updated forecast included the nine named storms to date this hurricane season, which ends November 30.