The National Hurricane Center has deemed an area of disturbed weather as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in order to issue tropical storm warnings for parts of the Bahamas still reeling from Hurricane Dorian.
The system is not yet a depression, though the NHC still gives it a very high chance of further development. Looking at the extended forecast, Nine could be a depression by sometime Friday and Tropical Storm Humberto by the weekend.
While the official forecast cone shows the system making landfall as a tropical storm, then weakening to a depression before returning to open waters, the NHC acknowledged that there is heavy disagreement with models on the potential tropical cyclone's future. The GFS, for example, keeps Nine as a weak system that drifts into the Gulf, while the Euro and other global models keep it over water and becoming a stronger system.
"The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly uncertain, more than usual I would say," read the discussion from a NHC forecaster in the initial advisory.