(WBRZ News 2) The WBRZ Weather Team is monitoring two threats for severe thunderstorms and the next shot at cooler temperatures.
THE FORECAST
Today and Tonight: Another cloud filled sky is expected on Wednesday with a better shot at showers into the evening and overnight hours. High temperatures will chug into the mid 70s once again with southeast winds of 5-10mph. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity overnight with temperatures stuck in the upper 60s.
Up Next: Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday. While this threat is on the lower end of the risk scale, keep in touch with the forecast in case any watches or warnings are issued. Either way, rain is expected across the area with high temperatures not escaping the low 70s.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center as placed the entire forecast area under a marginal risk for severe weather. This means isolated severe storms are possible within the forecast area. On a scale of 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest) severe weather threat, this event is a 1. Another way of describing the threat is that there is a 5 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of a given point in the risk area.
Possible Threats
1) Downpours – heavy rain will occur with storm cells embedded in a larger area of precipitation.
2) Gusty Wind – in storms that turn severe, wind gusts could exceed 58mph.
3) Isolated Tornadoes – ingredients are not ideal, but enough wind shear in the atmosphere means that a tornado cannot be ruled out.
Precipitation
Up to 2” of rain could fall anywhere within the 13 Parish, 3 County Forecast Area—especially where the heaviest storms occur. At minimum, all locations should receive 0.5” of rain.
Estimated Timeline
Rain will become widespread and heavier before dawn. Rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected to last into the afternoon hours. The greatest risk for severe storms will be in the afternoon hours before a front kicks through the region. Clouds and lighter rain may last as late as evening; however, impact weather will be over by then.
Impacts
The morning commute will be rather unsettled. Areas of heavy rain may make driving difficult in some locations. Loose, outdoor objects could be blown in the wind –including any straggling holiday decorations. While the risk for a tornado is appreciably lower than in past events, we’ve seen “lower risk days” produce. Even a low risk is still a risk.
Actions
Monitor the forecast. Stick with the WBRZ Weather Team on Facebook and Twitter and watch WBRZ News 2 for updates through the day. The free WBRZ WX App sends push notifications to mobile devices if a watch or warning is issued for your location. Remember, a watch means "conditions are favorable, and a particular threat could develop" and a warning means that “threat is happening and you should take action immediately.”
Partly sunny skies and mild temperatures are anticipated for Friday before another threat for strong thunderstorms shapes up on Saturday. Between Thursday and Saturday, the WBRZ Weather Team is placing a greater emphasis on Saturday’s threat which brings a higher risk for severe weather.